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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2011 1:17 am 
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Economic Overview

A declining economy is not a sign of the coming Great Tribulation, but part of it. In order for a one-world financial system to come about it will require the collapse of our present wealth. This must happen in order for the Anti-Christ to control the economy, and for the Mark of the Beast to be practical.

The possibility of a coming world economic crash is in some ways similar to a metaphor gaining popularity lately. This metaphor is called a "Black Swan Event”, an event that is a rare unexpected happening, one of momentum that people cannot predict because they view the world through a sort of tunnel vision, a herd mentality about which I have spoken. Most people see the world as something structured, ordinary, and comprehensible, described by Christ as, “marrying and being given in marriage”. This national mass delusion is better described by “as the days of Noah”.

The boom of the stock market in the last twenty years has led investors to have unrealistic expectations of the stock value.

In particular, there is a widely held opinion that what goes down must go up, and that the current state of the American financial market is merely a temporary irregularity, and that it will resume its upward march, thereby rewarding all those who have "held steady, or kept the faith".

Unfortunately, American history has many examples of “Black Swan Events” catastrophic market crashes. Such crashes happen suddenly with no warning and this next one will change lives and even the world forever. The current one is impacting human lives in a tragic way and further catastrophes will be unparalleled in all history!

We use events occurring in nature to predict the future. This is called, “linear extrapolation” and it means to project, extend, or expand known experience into an area not known or previously experienced to arrive at a conjectural knowledge of the unknown. This is reasonable, given the global market conditions, to predict a catastrophe crash at any moment. It is more than just theory that this study of phenomena is characterized by sudden shifts in behavior arising from small changes in circumstances.

The nature of the stock market does not make it predictable; it is more in the nature of what we call Chaos theory. Although, stock trading will generally follow a floating course and move gradually up and down over a period of time, with prices falling, but not leading to catastrophes it will however, inevitably lead to a crash.

There have been depressions in 1807, 1819, 1825, 1837, 1873, 1893, and 1929. The depression of 1929 is known as the Great Depression. Its causes have been debated, but generally accepted to be the European nations staggering under tremendous debts and taxes, a speculation boom in the New York stock market in the late twenties which over inflated the prices of stock, real estate mortgages based on greatly appreciated valuations, and larger amounts of money flowing out of consumers' pockets and into the savings accounts of the well-to-do.

Does this sound like our present state of affairs? Most certainly it does! I saw the other day that a prudent Wall Street analyst had said in his estimation that the stock market was forty percent over valued.
Some experts say eight to ten times its real value! European nations such as Greece, Spain, and a host of others are on the verge of bankruptcy, struggling with the burden of debts and taxes from failed socialist economies. The recent real estate fiasco is clearly linked to greatly appreciated real estate valuations which anyone should have noticed with the year after year rise in housing prices. We hear every day of the rich and well to do investing in this and that, while the common man struggles from day to day for his bread, a disparity of wealth just as that which preceded the Great Depression.

There exists a significant difference between the true value of stocks and the market price, therefore, there exists the possibility of a sudden adjustment. With the difference between market prices and book values being so extremely large there exists the possibility that an unrelated trigger, such as a terrorist act, could lead to a catastrophic change in trading behavior. This leads to panic, and this panic leads to a market crash this leads then to the beginning of the ride of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

Herds will stampede, although only when fear rises beyond the herds comfort level. Look out for stampedes!

The collapse of nations and societies are neither unusual nor unforeseeable. Societies rise, run into hard times, or more likely war and are thrown into collapse: We are all familiar with the Roman Empire, how it rose and then fell to a lower level of functioning. How low Rome fell is dependent upon the author, but is best described by Gibbon and amounts to the Roman Empire succumbing to barbarian invasions largely due to decay of morals among its rulers and citizens.

The collapse of the Soviet Union has been well documented. Although no walk in the park, people did not revert to the lowest dregs of human existence, nor has two World Wars lowered the majority of people to a meager existence. Sure, South Africa with its regime, Rwanda, and others have not been a pretty picture, but perhaps neither is the future. Some might say, well Iceland collapsed in 2008-2009, undergoing huge economic failure, but managed well. While this might be reassuring to some people this isn’t a likely outcome.

People will not stand in a soup-line in an orderly fashion awaiting their cup of watered down soup, no they simply take from those who have, for themselves, people no longer entertain the imagery or desire to be Robin Hoods. They may run in the hoods, but they are not Robin Hoods.

I cannot imagine a scenario in which the US does not collapse.

While we have averted economic collapse for the moment, what we have really done is pushed it off for a few years. Our policies are short term, designed to forestall an immediate collapse, but are unable to forestall it indefinitely.

The same is true of my assumptions about the practical, material consequences of climate change - the predictions of the government and others suggest that among the logical effects of climate change will be large numbers of refugees, conflict over scarce resources, drought, lowered rates of food production, increases in disease, heavier storms and more natural disasters, etc.. Not only do these things have economic costs, they have material ones they result in collapsed societies New Orleans, for example, can be reasonably said to have collapsed to a much lower level of function, after the catastrophic effects left behind by Katrina and will for quite a long time. In fact, it is not very clear, if it will ever rebound.
I think the evidence is undeniable that we are going to be facing an economic, energy, climate, moral and societal collapse all at the same time. We should at least assume the possibility of failure, but that's a problem in a society that seems to think that the future is going to get better, that you shouldn't prepare for failure, or have a backup plan for failure. We don’t prepare for disasters, even when they seem likely. We don't keep food around, even though the government is advising it. We don’t build bomb shelters; we don’t have evacuation plans, even though there is not three days of food in the average American city. We assume incorrectly that everyone would await their turn at the grocery store to get their allotted portion. I think New Orleans proves that one wrong.

I have become more, and more concerned with the world economy. I was reading the other day how unemployment figures are created. Now, I am no math major, but it doesn’t take one to realize right away that we are in trouble. I read on the Department of Labor’s website how the numbers are conglomerated. It turns out that only those unemployed for a year make it into the percentages, what a skewed system! In the 1930’s unemployment was reckoned by how many were without a job. Now we are waiting until the person has been unemployed for a year before we count him.

Given that the unemployment rate during the Great Depression was around twenty percent, it appears we in America are in a Depression. Given the same system of unemployment reckoning we are now at about twenty percent unemployment, the same as the Great Depression.

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